By Akinsuroju Olubunmi
Kenya’s catastrophic rainfall: Causes and impact
The devastating rainfall and floods wreaking havoc in Kenya since March have been among the worst the country has witnessed in recent memory.
At least 169 people have lost their lives, with 91 still missing, as per government reports. The most tragic incident occurred when 48 individuals perished due to a flash flood caused by a blocked river tunnel under a railway line in southwestern Kenya.
The relentless rains have displaced over 190,000 people and inflicted extensive damage to infrastructure across the nation.
Several factors contribute to the catastrophic rainfall, including Kenya’s seasonal weather patterns, human-induced climate change, and natural weather phenomena.
Kenya experiences two primary rainfall seasons: the “long rains” from March to May and the “short rains” from October to December. The current deluge, part of the “long rains,” is characterized by heavy downpours and occasional storms, with the Kenya Meteorological Department forecasting above-average rainfall and associated risks.
The intensity of the rainfall is attributed to various factors, including the Indian Ocean Dipole, a climate system influencing sea surface temperatures. The positive phase of this system leads to heavy rainfall in Kenya and neighboring regions.
Although some may associate the floods with the El Nino weather phenomenon, research indicates that its influence on East Africa during the “long rains” season is minimal. Instead, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and climate change play significant roles, as warmer oceans contribute to increased evaporation and intense rainfall.
Predicting the end of the “long rains” season has become challenging due to shifting weather patterns. The Kenya Meteorological Department anticipates rainfall to persist into June, with heavy downpours and associated risks forecasted in several regions.
As Kenya grapples with the aftermath of these catastrophic rains, efforts to mitigate the impacts and adapt to changing climate patterns remain critical.
Kenya catastrophic Rainfall, Climate Change